The once-solid alliance between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu appears to be unraveling, as growing indications point to a serious political fallout with potentially far-reaching consequences for the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Although neither leader has publicly addressed the situation, insiders across local, zonal, and national levels of the APC confirm that the rift is real—and deepening. What was once a master-protégé dynamic that shaped the political direction of Nigeria’s commercial capital has reportedly deteriorated into a cold war of silence, strategic sidelining, and symbolic rebukes.
Awkward Presidential Visit Raises Questions
Tensions came to the fore during President Tinubu’s recent visit to Lagos. Observers noted that on arrival at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, the president deliberately bypassed Governor Sanwo-Olu and greeted Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat instead. Eyewitnesses described the gesture as calculated and symbolic, reinforcing reports of a strained relationship.
Sources close to the presidency revealed that Tinubu’s media team was instructed to edit footage of the arrival ceremony to avoid scenes that could fuel speculation about the deteriorating ties.
In a further breach of protocol, Sanwo-Olu was reportedly excluded from the president’s journey to his Ikoyi residence—a role traditionally reserved for the state governor. Instead, that responsibility was handed to Hamzat, reinforcing the perception of Sanwo-Olu’s diminished standing.
Governor’s Absence from High-Profile Events Sparks Speculation
Sanwo-Olu’s conspicuous absence from several key events during the president’s stay, particularly the 50th anniversary of ECOWAS held at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) in Victoria Island, raised even more eyebrows. Customarily, the Lagos State governor is expected to deliver a goodwill message at events of such international and regional significance, especially when hosted in Lagos.
When queried, a spokesperson from the governor’s media team cited “important engagements elsewhere,” but the vague response did little to quell public curiosity or political chatter.
Power Struggle Over Lagos Assembly Leadership
Multiple high-ranking sources trace the root of the fallout to a failed plot to oust Lagos House of Assembly Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa. Reports suggest that 32 out of the 40 lawmakers signed a resolution backing Obasa’s removal, with the backing of Sanwo-Olu’s political camp. The plan reportedly aimed to replace him with Mojisola Meranda, a perceived loyalist of the governor.
However, President Tinubu is said to have swiftly intervened, halting the move and ensuring Obasa’s retention an action many interpreted as a direct warning to Sanwo-Olu for challenging the internal hierarchy of Lagos APC.
“That move was seen as a betrayal of Tinubu’s political structure,” a senior Lagos APC figure told The Guardian. “In this political climate, that kind of misstep is rarely forgiven.”
Marginalisation Evident in APC Primarie
The consequences of the alleged fallout became glaring during the APC local government primaries ahead of the July 12, 2025 council elections. Unlike in previous cycles, Sanwo-Olu was reportedly sidelined in the candidate selection process across all 57 Local Government Areas (LGAs) and Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) in Lagos.
The influential Governance Advisory Council (GAC), often aligned with the governor’s preferences, also found its power significantly curtailed. Insiders attribute this shift to a strategic directive from the presidency to reduce patronage networks and reassert centralised control of the APC’s grassroots base in Lagos.
Exclusion from National APC Events Signals Deeper Isolation
Sanwo-Olu’s absence from the APC National Policy and Performance Review Summit in Abuja—where President Tinubu was formally endorsed for a second term further solidified perceptions of his political isolation. The governor’s failure to attend such a high-stakes event was interpreted by many as a clear signal of strained relations with the party's top leadership.
Speculation is now rife that Sanwo-Olu may have been quietly barred from the Presidential Villa, following the failed attempt to dislodge Obasa and other acts seen as disloyalty to Tinubu's political structure.
Achimugu Scandal Adds Another Layer of Controversy
Adding fuel to the fire is the ongoing controversy involving Ms. Aisha Achimugu, a prominent businesswoman currently under EFCC investigation for alleged financial irregularities. Though the anti-corruption agency has distanced the probe from any political motives, some APC insiders allege that elements within the party have exploited the scandal to further discredit Sanwo-Olu.
These developments, observers say, reflect a broader effort to neutralise the governor’s influence ahead of 2027, as power blocs within Lagos APC recalibrate their strategies.
A Familiar Pattern of Political Fallout
Political analysts have pointed to a recurring trend in President Tinubu’s relationships with former protégés. Babatunde Fashola nearly lost his second-term bid in 2011 due to perceived independence, while Akinwunmi Ambode was denied a second term outright in 2019, paving the way for Sanwo-Olu’s emergence who was, at the time, seen as a more obedient ally.
Now, Sanwo-Olu appears to be facing a similar fate as his predecessors: marginalized, stripped of influence, and at risk of political isolation.
Critics argue that this cycle of loyalty politics has disrupted continuity in governance. With each fallout, major development projects are reportedly shelved to make room for new political alignments and interests.
“Each time there’s a rift, public policy suffers,” noted one political analyst. “From Fashola’s infrastructure drive to Ambode’s transport reforms and Sanwo-Olu’s tech initiatives every shift in loyalty leads to abandoned projects. The people of Lagos are the ones paying the price for these internal power struggles.”
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