Speculation is intensifying within Nigeria’s political circles following a closed-door meeting between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and two key opposition governors Ademola Adeleke of Osun State and Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State.
The unexpected gathering, held at the President’s private residence in Ikoyi, Lagos, on Tuesday, has stirred conversations about possible defections from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Adeleke’s Growing Proximity to the APC Raises Eyebrows
Governor Adeleke, accompanied by his brother and prominent businessman Deji Adeleke, as well as Nigerian music icon Davido, reportedly held strategic discussions with President Tinubu that touched on the 2026 Osun governorship election and the broader political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections.
This development follows Adeleke’s recent visit to Bisi Akande, a founding member of the APC and former governor of Osun State, further fueling rumors that the Osun helmsman may be preparing to switch political allegiance. Sources close to the matter suggest the meetings are more than ceremonial and may involve serious political negotiations.
The timing is particularly significant. Osun State has faced the withholding of local government allocations by the federal government for February, March, and April 2025 a move some interpret as part of a broader political chess game. Analysts note that such financial pressure could be used to sway state governors into aligning with the federal ruling party.
Adeleke, who ended the APC’s 12-year rule in Osun during the 2022 election and delivered the state resoundingly for PDP in the 2023 presidential, senatorial, and House of Representatives elections, remains a powerful force in South-West politics. His possible defection could reshape regional dynamics and bolster Tinubu’s influence heading into 2027.
“If the PDP leadership continues to sideline governors in its strongholds, it risks hemorrhaging key allies ahead of the next general election,” a PDP insider warned.
Amid internal uncertainty in the Osun APC especially with former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola now serving in Tinubu’s cabinet party strategists may be looking at Adeleke as a strategic asset, should reconciliation with internal factions prove elusive.
Sources within the presidency suggest Adeleke is seeking assurances of a free hand to pursue re-election in 2026 in exchange for support of Tinubu’s 2027 bid. His recent visit to Attorney General Prince Lateef Fagbemi adds weight to claims that strategic political consultations are ongoing.
Fubara’s Quiet Diplomacy Amidst Rivers Crisis
In Rivers State, Governor Siminalayi Fubara appears to be navigating a similar path. His appearance at the Tinubu meeting comes amid a fresh wave of political tension with Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and Fubara’s estranged predecessor.
Despite a presidentially brokered truce in December 2023, the power struggle between Fubara and Wike has persisted. A legislative faceoff has led to the suspension of pro-Fubara lawmakers, renewed calls for impeachment, and increased speculation about federal alignment as a survival strategy.
Former Ogun State Governor Chief Olusegun Osoba acknowledged the latest round of reconciliation efforts, describing the discussions as “cordial” but withholding further details.
While Governor Fubara has not publicly declared a shift in political allegiance, insiders suggest that negotiations are ongoing. In exchange for aligning with the APC or pledging support for Tinubu’s second term, federal sanctions and hostilities against Fubara’s administration could be eased or lifted.
Strategic Realignments Ahead of 2027
For both Adeleke and Fubara, the political calculations are clear. Defection or informal alignment with the federal centre could secure local political dominance, protect them from internal and external pressures, and ensure access to federal resources.
For President Tinubu and the APC, drawing influential PDP governors into the fold serves a dual purpose: weakening the opposition and reinforcing the party’s dominance ahead of the 2027 elections.
As political maneuvering intensifies, all eyes will be on how the PDP manages internal cohesion and whether it can hold on to its frontline figures or watch them drift towards Tinubu’s expanding coalition.
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