With less than two years until Nigeria’s crucial 2027 general elections, concerns are mounting about the credibility of the process amid reports of covert attempts to infiltrate and manipulate the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Insiders and civic actors warn that unless urgent safeguards are enforced by the National Council of State (NCoS), civil society organizations, and international observers, the country could be heading for one of its most disputed polls in history.
Alleged Plot to Manipulate Result Sheets and IReV
At the center of the growing controversy are allegations of a scheme to print parallel sets of official result sheets Form EC8A (polling unit), EC8B (ward), and EC8C (local government). Under the purported plan, one version would be displayed at polling units while another, pre-filled, would be kept hidden for later manipulation.
Analysts warn that such a strategy would directly undermine transparency by creating deliberate discrepancies between physical results and figures uploaded on INEC’s Results Viewing Portal (IReV).
Concerns have also been raised about the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), which was introduced to enhance accountability. Evidence from recent off-cycle elections notably in Kogi (2023), Edo (2024), and Ondo (2024) suggests loopholes may already be exploited. In several locations, pre-loaded results allegedly appeared on the IReV even before voting ended, while accredited voter counts in some polling units fell short of the figures eventually declared.
Questionable Voter Registration Practices
Worries extend beyond result collation. The ongoing Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise has come under sharp criticism, with reports of newly created polling units allegedly being padded with partisan supporters while restrictions on re-registration have disenfranchised genuine voters.
Although INEC’s guidelines specify that only new voters those who turned 18 since the last exercise or who have never registered are eligible, field investigations reveal that inflated registrations are taking place with the collusion of electoral officers and local government officials.
The scale of the problem was exposed in Anambra State, where INEC detected nearly 28,000 multiple registrations during the latest CVR, even as it admitted over 146,000 new voters into the state’s roll. Critics say the situation points to a broader pattern nationwide.
Looming Change in INEC Leadership
Adding to the tension is the impending exit of INEC Chairman Professor Mahmood Yakubu, whose tenure ends in November. While President Bola Tinubu is yet to announce a successor, reports indicate intense lobbying by political actors seeking the appointment of a compliant replacement.
Observers warn that a partisan choice could erode what little trust remains in INEC. Memories remain fresh of the controversy in 2015, when former President Muhammadu Buhari appointed Mrs. Amina Zakari, a family relation, as acting chair following the exit of Professor Attahiru Jega a move that sparked public outrage and cast early doubts on the administration’s electoral credibility.
Constitutional Safeguards Overlooked
Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution mandates that appointments to INEC including the chairman, commissioners, and resident electoral commissioners (RECs) be made by the president, confirmed by the Senate, and conducted in consultation with the National Council of State.
Yet successive administrations have often bypassed this safeguard. Rights groups such as the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) have already accused the Tinubu government of ignoring due process by appointing individuals with partisan ties without the required consultations.
Analysts caution that undermining this constitutional process risks delegitimizing INEC itself and could plunge the 2027 elections into the same disrepute that dogged the widely criticized 2003 and 2007 polls.
Opposition Parties Raise Alarm
Both the Labour Party (LP) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have issued warnings about what they describe as coordinated efforts to compromise the 2027 elections.
LP’s Interim National Publicity Secretary, Tony Akeni, alleged that powerful interests are plotting to infiltrate the party’s congresses at all levels ward, local government, state, and national with planted loyalists. He linked the scheme to broader manipulation within INEC, describing recent by-elections and voter registration irregularities as red flags.
“We cannot return to the days when strange names like Mike Tyson and Michael Jackson appeared on the voters’ register,” Akeni cautioned, urging Nigerians to remain vigilant ahead of the leadership change at INEC.
Similarly, PDP National Executive Committee member Timothy Osadolor described the current trajectory as a recipe for disaster. He cited irregularities in Rivers, Zamfara, Adamawa, and Edo elections, warning that unless deep reforms are urgently introduced, the 2027 polls could become a “complete waste of time and resources.”
He also questioned suspicious voter registration figures, noting that Osun State reportedly recorded more than 393,000 new voters during CVR while more populous states such as Kano, Sokoto, and Borno had far fewer additions.
What is at Stake
With voter turnout already at record lows just 26.7% in 2023 Nigeria faces a defining moment. Analysts argue that the credibility of INEC, coupled with transparent processes, will determine whether the 2027 elections strengthen or further undermine the country’s fragile democracy.
Civil society groups, the international community, and constitutional institutions such as the NCoS are now being urged to act decisively to safeguard the process before trust in the ballot box collapses entirely.
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