Nigeria’s upstream oil sector has recorded its lowest crude oil losses in nearly 16 years, with combined theft and metering discrepancies dropping sharply to just 9,600 barrels per day (bpd) in July 2025, according to new data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
This milestone marks the lowest level of losses since 2009, when figures fell to about 8,500 bpd. For a country whose economy is heavily dependent on petroleum exports, the development is being hailed as a major step towards restoring accountability and efficiency in the oil industry.
Significant Decline in Losses
Between January and July 2025, Nigeria lost a total of 2.04 million barrels of crude oil, averaging 9,600 bpd. This represents a 50.2% reduction compared to the 4.1 million barrels lost in 2024, when daily losses averaged 11,300 bpd.
The improvement becomes even more striking when viewed against 2021, which was widely regarded as the worst year in two decades. At the time, the country lost a staggering 37.6 million barrels of crude, translating to an average of 102,900 bpd. By comparison, this year’s performance reflects a 94.6% drop.
NUPRC Attributes Progress to Reforms and Security
NUPRC Chief Executive, Engineer Gbenga Komolafe, credited the sharp decline to reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, as well as strengthened partnerships with security agencies, oil companies, and host communities.
“This significant reduction reflects our unwavering commitment to eliminating crude oil theft, plugging leakages, and enforcing operational efficiency across Nigeria’s oilfields and pipelines,” Komolafe said in a statement.
Strategies Driving Results
The Commission revealed it has adopted a dual-pronged strategy combining tougher surveillance and infrastructure protection with stricter regulatory oversight and improved transparency.
Some of the key measures implemented include:
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A comprehensive metering audit across upstream facilities to tackle under-reporting and inaccuracies.
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The approval of 37 new crude evacuation routes, designed to reduce theft opportunities and improve monitoring.
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Closer collaboration with host communities, who are now increasingly integrated into security and monitoring efforts.
Industry Reaction and Future Outlook
Industry stakeholders have described the achievement as a potential turning point for Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy, noting that reduced losses could boost government revenue, restore investor confidence, and enhance Nigeria’s credibility within global oil markets.
“This progress shows that the PIA reforms are beginning to yield results,” said Dr. Aisha Mohammed, an energy analyst based in Lagos. “However, sustaining these gains will require constant vigilance, greater investment in surveillance technology such as drones and sensors, and consistent enforcement of regulatory policies.”
Analysts also stress that while the 2025 numbers are encouraging, complacency could undo the progress. Continued sabotage, pipeline vandalism, and weak community engagement remain potential risks that must be managed.
A New Era of Accountability?
With losses now at historic lows, the NUPRC’s latest figures suggest that Nigeria is on a gradual path toward greater efficiency, transparency, and accountability in its most vital revenue-generating sector. If sustained, the progress could help the government stabilize earnings, reduce its budget deficits, and channel more resources toward infrastructure and social development.
For the first time in more than a decade, Nigeria’s oil sector appears to be breaking away from the cycle of losses that has long drained its revenues. The question now is whether the momentum can be maintained in the years ahead.
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